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Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction

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Pub. Date:
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Language:
English
Description
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
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ISBN:
9780804136709
9781511364041
9780804136716
9780804136693
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Grouping Information

Grouped Work ID339f4d33-9b74-56ba-46af-9b85901a6990
Grouping Titlesuperforecasting the art and science of prediction
Grouping Authorphilip e tetlock
Grouping Categorybook
Grouping LanguageEnglish (eng)
Last Grouping Update2024-05-25 02:14:20AM
Last Indexed2024-05-25 02:25:18AM

Solr Fields

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0
auth_author2
Gardner, Dan, 1968-
Richards, Joel
author
Tetlock, Philip E. (Philip Eyrikson), 1954-
author2-role
Gardner, Dan,1968-
Gardner, Dan,1968-author
Richards, Joel,narrator
author_display
Tetlock, Philip E.
available_at_catalog
Arcade
Central
Elk Grove
Fair Oaks
North Natomas
detailed_location_catalog
Arcade
Central
Elk Grove
Fair Oaks
North Natomas
display_description
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
format_catalog
Book
CD Audiobook
eBook
format_category_catalog
Audio Books
Books
eBook
id
339f4d33-9b74-56ba-46af-9b85901a6990
isbn
9780804136693
9780804136709
9780804136716
9781511364041
itype_catalog
Adu CD/Spoken Word
Adult Book Non-Fiction
last_indexed
2024-05-25T09:25:18.277Z
lexile_score
-1
literary_form
Non Fiction
literary_form_full
Non Fiction
local_callnumber_catalog
303.49 T347 2015
CD 303.49 T347 2015
owning_library_catalog
Sacramento Public Library
owning_location_catalog
Arcade
Central
Elk Grove
Fair Oaks
North Natomas
primary_isbn
9780804136709
publishDate
2015
publisher
Brilliance Audio
Crown
recordtype
grouped_work
subject_facet
Audiobooks
Economic forecasting
Forecasting
title_display
Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction
title_full
Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction / Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction
Superforecasting [sound recording] : the art and science of prediction / Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
title_short
Superforecasting
title_sub
the art and science of prediction
topic_facet
Business
Economic forecasting
Forecasting
Nonfiction
Psychology
Sociology

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