Philip E. Tetlock. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown.

Philip E. Tetlock. 2015. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown.

Philip E. Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown, 2015.

Philip E. Tetlock. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown, 2015.

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1. • role: Author
   • fileAs: Tetlock, Philip E.
   • bioText: Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.
      
     Dan Gardner is a New York Times bestselling author, speaker, and consultant. His three books on psychology and decision-making—published in 25 countries and 19 languages—have been praised by everyone from The Economist to Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman. Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was a newspaper columnist, talking head, and investigative journalist who won or was nominated for every major award in Canadian newspaper journalism. He is an honorary senior fellow at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public Policy and International Affairs and lives in Ottawa, Canada.
   • name: Philip E. Tetlock
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   • name: Dan Gardner

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2015-09-29T00:00:00-04:00

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title

Superforecasting

fullDescription

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST 
“The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
 
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
 
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
 
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

reviews

1. • premium: False
   • source: New York Times Book Review
   • content: "The material in Superforecasting is new, and includes a compendium of best practices for prediction... The accuracy that ordinary people regularly attained through their meticulous application did amaze me... [It offers] us all an opportunity to understand and react more intelligently to the confusing world around us."
2. • premium: False
   • source: The Economist
   • content: "Tetlock's thesis is that politics and human affairs are not inscrutable mysteries. Instead, they are a bit like weather forecasting, where short-term predictions are possible and reasonably accurate... The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone."
3. • premium: False
   • source: The Financial Times
   • content: "Tetlock's work is fascinating and important, and he and Gardner have written it up here with verve."
4. • premium: False
   • source: Cass R. Sunstein, The Bloomberg View
   • content: "Superforecasting is the most important scientific study I've ever read on prediction."
5. • premium: False
   • source: Forbes
   • content: "One of Tetlock's key points is that these aren't innate skills: they can be both taught and learned... Tetlock's 'Ten Commandments For Aspiring Superforecasters' should probably have a place of honor in most business meeting rooms."
6. • premium: True
   • source:
   • content:

     Starred review from July 15, 2015
     Superforecasting-predicting events that will occur in the future-is not only possible; it accounts for an entire industry. World-renowned behavioral scientist Tetlock (Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know, 2005, etc.) explains why some people are so good at it and how others can cultivate the skill. Global forecasting is hardly limited to predicting the weather. In fact, much of it has significantly higher stakes: everything from the potential of conflict in the North China Sea to the 2016 presidential election is at play. Legions of intelligent, well-educated, and well-paid analysts digest data and attempt to make hundreds of nuanced predictions each year. Remarkably, in his seminal 20-year study, the author established that, on average, these "experts" are "roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee." On the other hand, the superforecasters Tetlock has recruited are far more accurate: his team handily beat their competitors in a forecasting tournament sponsored by a U.S. government agency, providing more accurate answers than even those with access to classified files. And here's the rub: his all-volunteer team is composed entirely of so-called ordinary people with ordinary jobs. In this captivating book, Tetlock argues that success is all about the approach: foresight is not a gift but rather a product of a particular way of thinking. Superforecasters are open-minded, careful, curious, and self-critical. They make an initial prediction and then meticulously adjust this prediction based on each new piece of related information. In each chapter, the author augments his research with compelling interviews, anecdotes, and historical context, using accessible real-world examples to frame what could otherwise be dense subject matter. His writing is so engaging and his argument so tantalizing, readers will quickly be drawn into the challenge-in the appendix, the author provides a concise training manual to do just that. A must-read field guide for the intellectually curious.

     COPYRIGHT(2015) Kirkus Reviews, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

7. • premium: True
   • source:
   • content:

     September 1, 2015
     

     Tetlock (Annenberg Univ. Professor, Univ. of Pennsylvania; Expert Political Judgment) and journalist Gardner (Future Babble) have consolidated their efforts in a quest to figure out how best to anticipate the future. This book is one of several on the subject (e.g., Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise) that are not necessarily big-data driven, nor confined to business applications. Tetlock and Gardner examine both theory and practical instances of forecasts that were successful and unsuccessful--the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Bay of Pigs are cited, as are examples concerning professional poker, medicine, and weather. The authors introduce Brier scores (a measurement of the accuracy of probabilistic predictions). Profiled is the Good Judgment Project, a consortium of volunteer forecasters co-led by Tetlock and others. What comes through clearly in this book is that the best forecasters are bright but not necessarily Big Bang Theory smart--they have curiosity and an ability to detach themselves from preconceived notions. The appendix gives abbreviated dicta for those who aspire to be superforecasters. VERDICT In the absence of a physical absolute, insightful forecasts are invaluable. Day traders, consumer marketers, and statisticians will find this book of value.--Steven Silkunas, Fernandina Beach, FL

     Copyright 2015 Library Journal, LLC Used with permission.

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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST 
“The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
 
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
 
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and...

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