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Thinking in bets: making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts

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Language:
English
Description
"Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run"--
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ISBN:
9780735216358
9780735216365
9780525532552
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Grouping Information

Grouped Work ID4245f6ff-15f1-357d-5741-f679bc2b72cb
Grouping Titlethinking in bets making smarter decisions when you don t have all the facts
Grouping Authorannie duke
Grouping Categorybook
Grouping LanguageEnglish (eng)
Last Grouping Update2024-03-28 11:14:08AM
Last Indexed2024-03-28 11:16:21AM

Solr Fields

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0
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0
author
Duke, Annie, 1965-
author_display
Duke, Annie
detailed_location_catalog
Carmichael
Sylvan Oaks
display_description
"Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run"--
format_catalog
Book
eAudiobook
eBook
format_category_catalog
Audio Books
Books
eBook
id
4245f6ff-15f1-357d-5741-f679bc2b72cb
isbn
9780525532552
9780735216358
9780735216365
itype_catalog
Adult Book Non-Fiction
last_indexed
2024-03-28T18:16:21.075Z
lexile_score
-1
literary_form
Non Fiction
literary_form_full
Non Fiction
local_callnumber_catalog
658.40353 D877 2018
owning_library_catalog
Sacramento Public Library
owning_location_catalog
Carmichael
Sylvan Oaks
primary_isbn
9780735216358
publishDate
2018
publisher
Books on Tape
Penguin Publishing Group
Portfolio/Penguin
recordtype
grouped_work
subject_facet
Decision making
Management games
title_display
Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts
title_full
Thinking in Bets Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts / Annie Duke
title_short
Thinking in bets
title_sub
making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts
topic_facet
Business
Decision making
Management games
Nonfiction
Psychology

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